The UN and Iraq

An article in the Christian Science Monitor today outlines what seems to be a resolution in the ongoing US/UN disagreement over Iraq. With Bush working with Germany and Russia again and things are looking good for having international troops in Iraq in next few months. I would argue, however, that the best strategy for the member nations of the UN who aren't the US or the 'coalition of the willing' would be to agree to a resolution, but hold off on any actually troop deployment for at least a half year, if not longer. This may seem like a strange strategy given the need to ensure the safety of the Iraqi people, but there is a larger fish to fry here, namely one from Crawfordsville Texas.

The longer that the United States remains the only power of influence in Iraq, the more money they will have to pour into the country to keep it stable and, and this is where the realpolitik part comes in, the more losses they will suffer to their armed forces. I have read in a couple of places that Americans don't mind casualties per say, but they don't like casualties while thinking that they aren't on the winning side of the strategy, i.e. that they are in a quagmire. The money spent, combined with a poor economy and the top-heavy tax cuts, will exacerbate the fiscal problems of the United States. This combined with ongoing casualties with no end in sight continue to sink GW's poll numbers so that in a year from now the Clark/Dean team rolls over him with promises for more international cooperation and fiscal sanity. Order that was taken away by this administrations unilateralism will then be restored to the international system and we can start making some real progress in dealing with the problems in Iraq and Afghanistan. (you do remember Afghanistan, don't you?)

I don't really like the idea of facilitating increased casualties for anyone, and it is true that there needs to be some semblance of order restored to Iraq for the sake of the people living there. But the larger problem for the global community is dealing with an administration that disrespects the international community with it's cowboy-like antics, and holding out a little before helping might be the optimum strategy to kill two birds with one stone.